Forecasting Public Expenditure (BAföG) Using LSTMs: A Multi-Task Learning Approach for Volatile Data

Date:

Sunday, November 16, 2025

Time:

On demand

Summary:

Accurately forecasting expenditures is crucial for budgeting and policy planning. This session presents a multi-task LSTM model designed to predict annual federal student aid (BAföG) expenditures for the current and next two years. Using 16 state-level time series, it addresses extreme intra-year volatility, strong seasonality, and the risk of overfitting with small datasets. Attendees will gain insights into overcoming these challenges and improving real-world time series forecasting models.

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